A recent study has revealed that golf is the most difficult professional sport to predict a winner in, compared to other individual sports such as tennis, snooker, badminton, and squash. The research analyzed results from 2004-2024 and found that winners of Major golf championships typically had a lower world ranking than champions in other sports, with an average ranking of 18 for golf winners. In comparison, tennis winners had an average world ranking of 10.
Snooker champions were also found to have a relatively low world ranking when winning major championships, typically ranking at least 10th in the world. On the other hand, badminton and squash champions had higher world rankings, averaging 4th and 3rd respectively. Public sentiment on golf versus other sports was also examined, with golf being perceived as the most unpredictable sport by a significant margin.
Jean Van de Velde’s memorable meltdown at the 1999 Open Championship at Carnoustie was cited as an example of golf’s unpredictable nature. Golf fans were reported to have the least confidence in forecasting winners, displaying a lower level of confidence compared to fans of tennis and Formula 1. Golfers also reported the least consistency in their own performance compared to athletes in other sports, scoring 10% lower than tennis players.
The Open, one of golf’s major championships, has shown the most variation and range in winning scores over the past 20 years. The tournament has witnessed extremes in winning scores, with the lowest being -20 in 2022 and the highest being +3 in 2008. Analysis of the top 25 finishing players in the four major championships revealed that The Open had the highest variation and range across the four rounds, with an average difference of six shots between a player’s best and worst rounds.
Colin Montgomerie, a seasoned golfer with multiple professional titles but no major championships, highlighted the unpredictability of the game. He emphasized the importance of adaptability and resilience in golf, noting that the ability to navigate challenges could determine the outcome of a match. Jonathan Castleman, Managing Director at HSBC, the organization behind the study, emphasized the unpredictable nature of golf and its resemblance to life’s twists and turns.
The upcoming 152nd Open at Royal Troon is expected to continue the trend of unpredictability in golf. As the Patron of The Open since 2011, HSBC will be involved in the event, which is scheduled to take place from July 18-21. Castleman expressed excitement for the tournament, highlighting the parallels between golf and life, where unforeseen circumstances often influence outcomes. The study’s findings underscore the unique and unpredictable nature of golf as a sport, contributing to its enduring popularity among fans and players alike.
