McIlroy’s Pebble Debut Sets Up Classic David-and-Goliath Story—But Kim’s the Real Sleeper

After 35 years covering this tour, I’ve learned that the most compelling narratives aren’t always the ones wearing the favorites’ jersey. This week at Pebble Beach, we’ve got exactly that dynamic playing out: Scottie Scheffler arriving as an overwhelming (-300) favorite while Rory McIlroy makes his season debut after skipping the first four tournaments. On the surface, it’s a straightforward story. Dig deeper, though, and you’ll find something far more interesting lurking in the odds.

Let me start with what strikes me most about McIlroy’s absence. In my experience, when a player of Rory’s caliber skips early events, it’s rarely about the need for rest. It’s about precision. McIlroy is methodical in ways casual fans don’t always appreciate—he’s protecting his game, building momentum toward specific moments. Pebble Beach, a course that rewards shotmaking and course management in equal measure, is exactly where you want a player hitting his stride rather than his panic button. At +1400, he’s not the favorite, but he’s being dramatically undervalued by bettors who see his absence as rust rather than runway.

Scottie’s Dominance, But Not Invincibility

Now, about Scheffler. Look, the man is legitimately phenomenal. I’ve caddied for great players, covered Hall of Famers at their peak, and I can tell you—Scottie’s trajectory is exceptional. But here’s what I’ve noticed: even the best players in history struggle occasionally at Pebble Beach. The course punishes complacency in ways Augusta and St. Andrews don’t. It’s windy, the greens are firm, and one poor tee shot at the wrong hole can derail an entire tournament.

“Si Woo Kim has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour so far this year, finishing no worse than T11 in his four events. He’s been T6 or better in his last three events, and is coming off a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T2 the prior week at the Farmers Insurance Open.”

That passage about Kim caught my attention immediately, and here’s why: in three-plus decades of watching this game, I’ve learned that consistency at this level is a screaming red flag that the betting market is ignoring. When a player doesn’t finish worse than T11 across four starts and posts three straight top-six finishes, that’s not luck. That’s form. That’s a player whose fundamentals are aligned and whose confidence is stratospheric.

The Si Woo Kim Phenomenon

What fascinates me about Kim’s emergence this season is how it reflects the modern PGA Tour. Twenty years ago, a player like Si Woo might have been waiting for a major championship or a signature event to break through into the national consciousness. Today? The tour has compressed—the talent is deeper, the competition is fiercer, and sustained excellence is harder than ever to maintain. The fact that Kim is sustaining it is remarkable.

His track record at Pebble specifically matters too. He’s finished in the top 15 in two consecutive appearances here. For a course as demanding as Pebble Beach, that’s a calling card. He understands the layout, knows what it demands, and has proven he can deliver. At +2000, he’s getting nearly 5-to-1 odds despite being arguably the form player in this entire field. That’s the kind of value I’d have explored aggressively if I were still actively playing this game.

What the Field Tells Us

The odds themselves paint an interesting picture. After Scheffler, McIlroy, and Kim, you’ve got a tier of elite players—

“Xander Schauffele at +2500 and Cameron Young, Viktor Hovland, Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley and Justin Rose all at +2700.”

That’s depth. That’s a field where the gap between the first-place and 10th-place finisher could legitimately be won by any of a dozen different players depending on who’s comfortable that week. In my experience, that’s when major surprises happen. Parity breeds unpredictability.

I’ll also note the absence narrative around Hideki Matsuyama. The analytical model mentioned in this preview is fading him despite his +3000 odds, which makes sense given his Pebble Beach history—T48 and T71 in two appearances. But here’s what I know: form matters more than venue sometimes. Matsuyama just played his way into contention at Phoenix, and that momentum—playoff loss notwithstanding—tends to carry. Whether that’s enough to overcome a poor Pebble Beach history? That’s the gamble.

A Signature Event That Actually Means Something

Let me be clear about something: I’m genuinely pleased to see the PGA Tour leaning into “Signature Events.” After decades covering the tour, I’ve watched the calendar become diluted, overstuffed with tournaments that matter to nobody except the sponsors writing checks. Pebble Beach is different. Pebble Beach has always mattered. It has history, prestige, and the kind of course that separates the good players from the great ones.

McIlroy won here last year, and he’s returning as the defending champion—that’s not nothing. It’s not everything either, but it’s another data point suggesting that this week, on this course, at this moment, we might be looking at a genuine title contender rather than just a name at the top of the odds.

First tee times arrive Thursday at 11:45 a.m. ET. That’s when we’ll find out whether the favorites hold, whether Kim’s form translates to a trophy, or whether some wildcard at 50-to-1 decides to remind us all why we fell in love with this game in the first place.