Scheffler’s Stranglehold on Pebble Beach: Why the Favorites Keep Getting Longer
After 35 years of watching the West Coast swing unfold—and I do mean watching, from the gallery ropes, the press tent, and yes, even from the caddie shack back when I was looping for Tom Lehman—I’ve learned that betting odds tell a story the scoreboard doesn’t always capture. This week at Pebble Beach, that story is becoming increasingly familiar: Scottie Scheffler is so dominant that everyone else’s odds are basically retreating into the ocean.
Let’s start with the obvious. Scheffler arrives at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as the -300 favorite, which is telling in itself. But here’s what really caught my attention: the gap between him and the field has actually widened since last week’s Phoenix Open, where he posted +230 odds. That’s not normal volatility. That’s the market reacting to something more profound than a single tournament result.
The Phoenix Lesson Nobody’s Talking About
Yes, Scheffler finished one shot out of a Chris Gotterup playoff last week. Yes, he started with a 73 in the first round—hardly the stuff of invincibility. But here’s the thing about watching a player at that level for long enough: you notice what matters and what doesn’t. A first-round 73 followed by a charge back into contention? That’s not a weakness in the armor. That’s a player with the kind of mental resilience that separates champions from the rest of the grid.
“Scheffler clawed his way back into contention, ultimately finishing one shot shy of a playoff won by Chris Gotterup. That means Scheffler now has a win and a T3 in his first two tournaments this season.”
I’ve covered 15 Masters. I’ve watched the greatest pressure moments in golf. And I can tell you that what Scheffler did last week—bouncing back from that opening round—is exactly the sort of thing that should concern every other player in this field. It’s not the victories that separate the truly elite from everyone else. It’s how they respond when things go sideways.
In my experience, that’s the kind of mental toughness you can’t manufacture or bet against effectively. The oddsmakers know it. The players know it. That’s why Rory McIlroy, a generational talent in his own right, sits at +1400—nearly five times longer odds than the guy who beat him to the World No. 1 ranking.
Where’s the Rest of the Field?
What strikes me most about this year’s betting odds at Pebble is not the confidence in Scheffler, but the apparent lack of conviction in anyone else. Look at the second tier:
“Three players are next on the list at +2500: Justin Rose, Si Woo Kim and Tommy Fleetwood. Ryder Cuppers Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele round out the top 7 with odds of +2800.”
You’ve got two Ryder Cup stalwarts, a recent major championship winner in Rose, and some genuine world-class players in Fleetwood and Kim. These aren’t pretenders. Yet the betting market is treating them almost as an afterthought to Scheffler. The odds jump from +300 to +1400 with McIlroy, then settle into the +2500-+2800 range for what should be a compelling field.
That’s not a referendum on those players’ abilities. It’s a reflection of what we’re witnessing on tour right now: a level of dominance that makes even excellent golf feel insufficient.
The Pebble Beach Factor
Here’s something the casual bettor might miss: Pebble Beach itself is a unique laboratory. The three-course rotation—Pebble, Spyglass, and Old Del Monte—means that course management and adaptability matter more than pure firepower. In my years covering this event, I’ve seen unlikely winners emerge precisely because the format rewards consistency over bombing and bashing.
That *should* be good news for someone like McIlroy making his season debut, or Hovland, who’s shown tremendous range. And it probably will be. But Scheffler’s range is even broader. He’s not just the best driver or the best iron player. He’s the most complete.
The Real Story Here
Having caddied in the ’90s, I remember a tour where five or six guys on any given week felt capable of winning. That competition created drama, unpredictability, and genuinely compelling narratives. What we’re watching now is different. It’s excellence, absolutely. But it’s also a very particular kind of excellence that’s making the rest of the field feel like supporting players.
The good news? This can’t last forever. History shows us that. Competition eventually reasserts itself. But for this week, at this moment, the betting odds aren’t really telling us anything we don’t already know: Scottie Scheffler is playing a different game than everyone else, and the market—always smarter than we want to admit—is pricing that in accordingly.
Pebble Beach starts Thursday. Bring your binoculars if you want to watch someone truly special. Bring your betting slips if you want to watch the consensus.
