Pebble Beach’s Winter Warmth: Why Rory’s Return Matters More Than You Think
There’s something about Pebble Beach in early February that strips away all the noise and gets down to brass tacks. After 35 years covering this tour, I’ve learned that the AT&T Pro-Am isn’t just another PGA Signature Event—it’s the first real measure of where the season’s heavy hitters actually stand.
This week, we get Rory McIlroy returning from a four-tournament absence, and that simple fact tells you everything you need to know about how the modern tour operates. McIlroy won this event last year, but he’s chosen to skip the early grind and arrive fresh at Pebble. It’s a luxury only a select few can afford, and it speaks volumes about his confidence heading into what figures to be a pivotal season.
The Scottie Question Looms Large
Let’s address the elephant on the fairway: Scottie Scheffler sits at +300 odds, which means the betting world has essentially made him the favorite before anyone’s hit a meaningful shot all week. In my experience caddying for Tom Lehman back in the day, and covering 15 Masters since then, I’ve learned to respect market efficiency. When the smart money puts one player at nearly a 4-to-1 advantage over the defending champion, you pay attention.
But here’s what intrigues me about this setup. Scheffler’s dominance is real and documented—that’s not hyperbole. Yet Pebble Beach has historically been a course that rewards precision and course management over pure ball-striking. It’s tight, it’s tricky with wind, and the greens demand touch. In my experience, even the best ball-strikers occasionally get humbled on the Monterey Peninsula.
Si Woo Kim’s Hot Hand Deserves Respect
What strikes me most about the oddsmakers’ consensus is their bullishness on Si Woo Kim at +2700. According to the preview: “Kim has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour so far this year, finishing no worse than T11 in his four events. He’s been T6 or better in his last three events, and is coming off a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T2 the prior week at the Farmers Insurance Open.”
This is the kind of intel that separates casual observers from serious bettors. Kim isn’t some flash-in-the-pan story—he’s a guy who understands how to build momentum, and crucially, he has Pebble experience. Two straight top-15 finishes at this event suggest he’s figured out something about this golf course that others haven’t. In my thirty-plus years on tour, I’ve learned that consistency like that, especially at a specific venue, is worth more than any single spectacular round.
The Gotterup Conversation
Now here’s where it gets interesting, and frankly, where I think there’s some real analysis happening beneath the surface. Chris Gotterup has turned heads early—won two of his first three events, which is legitimately impressive. The model, however, takes a contrarian stance: “Gotterup, who has won two of the three events he’s played in this year, including the WM Phoenix Open last week, doesn’t even finish in the top 10 this week. He’s a golfer to avoid in Pebble Beach bets.”
The reasoning? Gotterup has never played Pebble Beach before. Now, I’m not one to dismiss a hot player, but I understand the logic. Tour courses demand familiarity. They’re not just layouts—they’re puzzles with specific solutions. Having watched countless young players arrive with blazing records only to stumble when course knowledge matters, I find this analysis fair. Momentum is real, but so is ignorance of a venue’s subtleties.
What This Field Really Tells Us
Looking at the broader picture, this week’s field offers a fascinating snapshot. You’ve got McIlroy returning fresh (+1300), Scheffler entrenched as the favorite, and an interesting tier of hungry Europeans and seasoned American pros all hunting. Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, and Justin Rose all sit at +2500—respectable odds that suggest they belong in the conversation but aren’t going to be surprised by anything that happens.
What I appreciate about this year’s AT&T Pro-Am is that it still rewards the kind of golf that made Pebble Beach famous. This isn’t a bombers’ course. You can’t overpower it. The greens are firm and punishing, the rough is legitimately penal, and the wind off the Pacific doesn’t negotiate. That’s good for the game, in my opinion.
The real story this week won’t be who wins—though I’d have money on McIlroy or Kim if I were at the sportsbook. The real story is what we learn about the state of play heading toward Augusta. How does Rory look after his break? Can Scottie extend his dominance on a course that doesn’t suit his strengths as neatly as some others? And what does Si Woo’s consistency tell us about who else might surprise us before spring?
That’s the Pebble Beach conversation worth having.
