Rory’s Return and the Pebble Beach Puzzle: Why This Week Matters More Than You Think

There’s something refreshing about watching a top player take control of his own calendar. Rory McIlroy skipped the first four events of 2026—a statement in itself—and is making his seasonal debut this week at Pebble Beach. In my 35 years covering this tour, I’ve learned that when elite players get selective about their schedule, it’s never random. There’s always a story underneath.

McIlroy’s decision to wait for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tells us something important about where his head is at. He won this event last year. He knows the course intimately. And more importantly, he’s not chasing points or trying to prove anything early. That’s the confidence of a player who understands his own peak windows. Having caddied for Tom Lehman back in the day, I saw this same pattern—the best players trust their instincts about when they need to be ready versus when they need to be fresh.

The Scheffler Question We Keep Asking

Scottie Scheffler sits at +300 as the overwhelming favorite. At this point, we’re not even talking about odds anymore—we’re talking about market efficiency. Scheffler has essentially become golf’s version of what Tiger was in his prime: so dominant that the real conversation isn’t whether he’ll win, but rather who’ll finish second.

What interests me more is the mid-tier tier of this field. There’s genuine intrigue lurking in the +2500 to +3000 range, and it’s not just because the odds present value. These Pebble Beach contenders have actual reasons to believe:

“Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele all at +2500”

Kim especially caught my attention. The kid has been one of the hottest golfers on tour so far, finishing no worse than T11 in his four events and coming off a T3 at Phoenix. In my experience, that kind of consistency—three straight finishes of T6 or better—doesn’t happen by accident. Kim’s also got Pebble Beach history, which matters at a course where familiarity genuinely translates to comfort.

The Gotterup Conundrum

Here’s where it gets interesting. Chris Gotterup won last week at Phoenix. This kid is clearly talented—he’s won two of his first three events. But there’s a cautionary note worth sounding, and this is where experience in the press box teaches you things that casual fans miss.

Winning one event and expecting immediate success at a completely different venue with different characteristics is a trap I’ve seen countless times. The computer model at SportsLine is specifically fading Gotterup this week, and frankly, I don’t think that’s crazy talk. Having never played Pebble Beach before, Gotterup faces the classic challenge: can you translate confidence from a Phoenix win into success on a course you don’t know?

“Gotterup, who has won two of the three events he’s played in this year, including the WM Phoenix Open last week, doesn’t even finish in the top 10 this week.”

That’s a bold prediction, but it’s worth considering. I’ve seen too many young players peak at the wrong time, burn out their momentum trying to repeat, and then spend three years wondering what happened. The pressure to back up a win with another strong finish can actually work against you.

The Rest of the Story

McIlroy at +1400 offers interesting value if you believe in his course knowledge and his ability to peak for specific events. Fleetwood is criminally underrated at +2500—he’s a 13-time European Tour winner who plays well in fields with celebrity amateurs (they tend to slow things down, which suits meticulous players). Hovland at +2700 is the kind of consistent performer who doesn’t make highlight reels but makes cuts and posts top-10s.

Then there’s the +3000 tier: Matsuyama (who just went to a playoff at Phoenix, so he’s clearly sharp), and some of the other mid-tier names that represent genuine opportunities for those willing to dig deeper than the favorites.

Why Pebble Beach Still Matters

Don’t let the “Signature Event” designation fool you. Pebble Beach isn’t just another tournament on the calendar. It’s one of the last remaining PGA Tour events that genuinely feels like golf the way most of us love it—beautiful setting, celebrity pro-am format, course character that actually demands respect rather than just perfect execution.

What strikes me this year is how the field is genuinely competitive without feeling chaotic. You’ve got Scheffler as the obvious pick, McIlroy as the sentimental choice, and then a genuine bunch of players—Kim, Fleetwood, Schauffele, Hovland—who have legitimate reasons to believe they can finish in the top five.

That’s the kind of depth that makes for compelling golf. Not “who stops Scheffler,” but rather “who runs second and actually makes it interesting.”

First tee off is this week. I’ll be watching closely. Having covered 15 Masters and thousands of tour events, I can tell you that weeks like this—where experience, form, and course knowledge collide—are when golf shows you exactly who’s ready and who’s just hoping.