The Phoenix Open’s Perfect Storm: Why Matsuyama’s Lead Might Not Be Enough
After 35 years covering professional golf, I’ve learned that a one-shot lead entering the final round at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course is about as secure as a 7-iron in a desert wind. And watching Saturday’s third round unfold, I couldn’t shake the feeling that we’re heading into Sunday with the kind of circumstances that separate the champions from the contenders—and Hideki Matsuyama’s got problems beyond just the score.
Don’t misunderstand me. Matsuyama played well enough to take the lead at 13-under 200, and his two Phoenix Open titles prove he knows how to handle the pressure of this particular stage. But what struck me watching the leaderboard fill up behind him wasn’t what Hideki did right—it’s what everyone else below him is doing that should keep him up tonight.
The Real Story Isn’t Matsuyama’s Lead. It’s the Logjam.
Here’s what the casual viewer might miss: there are four different players bunched at 12-under, just one shot back. Nicolai Hojgaard (who went bogey-free with five birdies in his last six holes), Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, and Ryo Hisatsune all have legitimate claims on this tournament heading into 18 holes. In my experience caddying for Tom Lehman back in the day, I learned that tournaments with this kind of compressed leaderboard rarely break cleanly. Instead, they tend to come down to who avoids mistakes and who gets hot at the right moment.
What’s particularly interesting is the trajectory of these challengers. McNealy’s four birdies in five holes on the back nine? That’s the kind of momentum that can be contagious on Sunday. And Hojgaard’s final six holes—five birdies without a single bogey—suggests someone whose game is dialed in at exactly the right time.
But Then There’s Scheffler. And That’s What Keeps Me Watching.
Let me be direct: I don’t believe Scottie Scheffler is truly five shots back. I believe he’s five shots back and dangerous in a way that most of the field hasn’t seemed to fully grasp.
The world’s top-ranked player came to Scottsdale in danger of missing his first cut since 2022 after a shaky opening 73. That’s the kind of adversity that either breaks you or builds something. Saturday, after making a grip change that “altered his outlook,” Scheffler shot 67 to move into serious contention. More importantly, he made a bunker shot at the 10th that went in the cup. He got up-and-down from the par-5s on the back nine. He fought for his score.
“Going to need a special round,” Scheffler said. “I’ll be starting on the front nine tomorrow, so if I can get out there and make a few birdies on the harder nine and get some momentum going into the back, you never know what can happen.”
Here’s what I know: Scheffler has been in this position before. In 2022, he rallied from nine shots down to win this very tournament for his first PGA Tour victory. A five-shot deficit entering the final round? That’s practically a vacation compared to what he’s accomplished here before. And the fact that he’s starting on the front nine—historically the tougher stretch at TPC Scottsdale—and feels comfortable about it tells you everything about his mindset.
Matsuyama’s Left Some Opportunities on the Table
Now, back to the man with his name atop the leaderboard. Matsuyama shot 68 Saturday and took the lead, which sounds solid. But the article makes it clear he left shots out there—the missed up-and-down from near the green on the par-4 17th, and that 15-foot birdie putt that caught the lip at 18.
“Catching Matsuyama could be tough. The Japanese star failed to get up-and-down from near the green on the short par-4 17th and left a 15-foot birdie putt on the lip at 18, but still finished at 13-under 200.”
In my experience, that’s actually a cautionary sign. When you’re in the lead heading into the final round and you left multiple birdie opportunities on the table, one of two things happens: either you’re playing so well that you’re hitting fairways and getting chances you don’t always get (good news), or you’re leaving yourself in positions where you need to execute perfectly and you haven’t been executing (warning sign). The fact that Matsuyama couldn’t convert suggests the latter might be creeping in.
To his credit, Matsuyama seems grounded about what’s ahead:
“There is a lot of guys there at the top that will be battling, so I just need to play well.”
That’s the right mentality. But mentality alone doesn’t win tournaments.
What Sunday Will Actually Tell Us
The real story isn’t who wins. It’s whether Matsuyama can hold off not just Scheffler, but four other players within one shot. In compressed leaderboard situations like this, the winner often isn’t the player who started the day in front—it’s the player who got hot at the right moment and made the fewest mistakes down the stretch.
Scheffler’s track record says he’s wired for that kind of final-day pressure. Matsuyama has proven he can win here. And Hojgaard, McNealy, and Kim all have the games to peak on Sunday.
That’s what makes this Phoenix Open special heading into the weekend—it’s genuinely unsettled, and that’s when golf becomes its most compelling.
