The Real Deal on the U.S. Open: Your Casual Betting Guide

Hey there, fellow golf enthusiasts! It’s that time of year again: the third major of the golf season is upon us, and this one’s set to be a doozy at Oakmont. No sugarcoating it—this course is one of the toughest in the U.S., and if you’re looking for a winning score that’s below par, you might be in for a long week. With the rough hitting at least five inches, the greens running faster than a cheetah on a treadmill, and those intimidating bunkers lurking around every corner, players are in for a serious test of skill.

Let’s break down the course a bit. Oakmont doesn’t mess around, folks! The par-3 holes are long enough to make you sweat bullets, with one stretching a whopping 293 yards. Yikes! But it’s not just a tough course; it has a championship pedigree. Think winners like Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, and, more recently, Dustin Johnson. These guys are the cream of the crop, and it’s clear that only the best will rise to the challenge this weekend.

Speaking of the best, let’s talk trends. If you’ve been keeping track of recent major winners, you know it’s been a party for the top dogs in the game. We’re talking about Scottie Scheffler (twice!), Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau. See a pattern here? Gone are the days of randoms like Ben Curtis showing up out of nowhere to snag a major. Unless you’ve been under a rock, you know it’s all about the elite nowadays!

Now, if you’re thinking about placing some bets, let me drop some knowledge. Forget about chasing long-shot winners; the majors have spoken, and they’re clearly tailored for the big hitters. Even trying to bet on players for a top five or top ten might not even be worth it unless you’re sticking to the top 20 on the odds sheet. Your best bet for the winner? Probably one of the top five names on that board.

Odds to Win the U.S. Open: Who’s Hot Right Now?

Alright, let’s dive into the betting odds. Here’s the rundown on the top contenders, courtesy of ESPN Bet. Keep in mind, these numbers can shift faster than a golfer’s mood after a bad round!

• Scottie Scheffler +275
• Bryson DeChambeau +650
• Rory McIlroy +950
• Jon Rahm +1200
• Xander Schauffele +2000
• Ludvig Aberg +2200
• Collin Morikawa +2500
• Joaquin Niemann +2800
• Shane Lowry +3300
• Tommy Fleetwood +3500
• Sepp Straka +4000
• Justin Thomas +4000
• Patrick Cantlay +4000
• Viktor Hovland +5000
• Brooks Koepka +6000
• Jordan Spieth +6600
• Tyrrell Hatton +6600
• Ben Griffin +7000
• Hideki Matsuyama +7000
• Sam Burns +7000

What to Look For When Betting

When betting on the U.S. Open, you’ll want to hone in on long drivers. Seriously, it’s a bomber’s paradise, and history backs this up. Look at DJ’s win back in 2016—he crushed the ball off the tee, and it got him the trophy. And don’t forget Cabrera leading the field in driving distance nine years prior! With virtually no trees in play at Oakmont, those long drives can really help, especially since the fairways are narrower than a golf pencil.

Missing fairways isn’t a huge penalty when you’re 30 yards closer to the hole. Sure, power isn’t everything; you’ve got to be good around the greens too. Just ask DeChambeau, who led in putting during his 2020 Winged Foot win. But guess what? This isn’t the week for short hitters. Oakmont history and current trends all scream for length and accuracy.

Players to Fade This Week

Now, before we get to the favorites, let’s talk about some players you might want to steer clear of:

• Brooks Koepka: After a rough start to the major season, it makes sense to be cautious. His past U.S. Open record is great, but he hasn’t been in contention since 2021.
• Cameron Smith: He’s been less than stellar since heading to LIV and has missed cuts at majors this year. Not a good sign.
• Viktor Hovland: Struggling at majors, with a questionable record. Just one top-10 in 12 starts? Pass.
• Xander Schauffele: This guy’s been unreliable since his rib injury. A safe bet for a top 10 might be okay, but I wouldn’t risk it for the win.
• Justin Thomas: While he’s climbing the ranks, his U.S. Open performances have been pretty underwhelming.
• Sungjae Im: Analytics might like him, but his poor U.S. Open track record keeps him off our radar.
• Jordan Spieth: He’s been playing better, but Oakmont doesn’t suit his skill set. Better to wait for a different course.

Players to Back This Week

Now let’s get to the real deal—those who are likely to give you a run for your money this week:

• Bryson DeChambeau: Long-distance driving? Check. Recent top finishes? Double-check. He’s a solid pick this week.
• Scottie Scheffler: The odds aren’t great, but can you really count him out? If he’s in the mix, he’s likely to pull through.
• Rory McIlroy: Six top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open? That’s an impressive stat. Don’t let recent woes scare you away.
• Jon Rahm: Though he’s had some struggles lately, he’s been in the top 15 in four of his last five U.S. Opens. Always a contender.
• Ludvig Aberg: He’s a bit of a wild card but has the potential to shine, especially with his driving ability.

Five Interesting Prop Bets

Let’s finish off with some prop bets that might tickle your fancy:

• DeChambeau for a top-five finish (+175): Given his past record, that’s pretty good value in my book.
• McIlroy for a top-10 finish (+130): With his consistent U.S. Open performance, this is a solid bet.
• Joaquin Niemann for a top-20 finish (+135): He may have a rough major history, but he’s coming off a LIV win and has long drives to aid him.
• No holes-in-one during the week (-160): Oakmont’s par-3s are brutal; I’m skeptical about anyone getting an ace.
• Min Woo Lee as top Australian (+400): Lee’s the longest hitter among his Aussie mates and has solid U.S. Open finishes.

So, that’s a wrap! Enjoy the tournament, and let’s see if your bets pan out. Who are you backing this week? Feel free to drop your picks in the comments below. Happy golfing and good luck!