Pebble Beach 2026: Why Scheffler’s Dominance Might Be Missing Something

Look, I’ve been around this tour long enough to know that when Scottie Scheffler shows up at Pebble Beach as a -300 favorite, most people stop thinking and start betting. But here’s what 35 years of covering professional golf has taught me: the most obvious choice isn’t always the right one, especially at a course like Pebble that rewards subtlety over sheer power.

Don’t get me wrong. Scheffler’s resume speaks for itself. The man has 20 career wins since turning pro in 2020, claimed Rookie of the Year honors, and is already on his second victory of 2026 after winning The Desert Classic on January 25th. At 29 years old, he’s operating at a level most players can only dream about. But something about the betting market this week—and the broader narrative around his game—deserves a closer look.

When the Narrative Gets Too Clean

What strikes me most is how the story has crystallized: Scheffler is unstoppable, everyone else is chasing. It’s a comfortable narrative. It’s also dangerous when you’re trying to make money in this game.

I watched Xander Schauffele’s troubles unfold in real time over the past two weeks, and they’re worth examining. The man missed the cut at Torrey Pines two weeks ago—his first missed cut in 73 PGA Tour starts. That’s not a blip; that’s a pattern forming. Last week in Phoenix, he nearly missed again. These aren’t the performances of someone peaking for Pebble Beach, yet the market still has him at +2500, essentially betting that a short-term slump will reverse itself at one of the most demanding venues on the tour.

“Schauffele has drifted into the mid-20s as far as odds to win this week and I’ve even seen him in the low 30s. He missed the cut two weeks ago at Torrey Pines, his first missed cut on Tour in 73 starts, and he nearly missed it again last week in Phoenix.”

That kind of assessment from someone like Brady Kannon—a handicapper with more than 30 years in the industry who nailed eight major outright winners since 2013—should make anyone pause. Kannon’s track record speaks loudly. He hit Harris English at 110-1 at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2025, for crying out loud. When someone of that caliber is fading a favorite, it’s worth understanding why.

The Pebble Factor: Course Fit Matters More Than People Think

Here’s what people sometimes miss about Pebble Beach: it’s not just a test of raw talent. Having caddied for Tom Lehman back in my early days, I learned that Pebble demands patience, precise course management, and the ability to stay composed when things get tight. It’s beautiful and brutish at the same time.

The 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am plays as a par-72 at 6,989 yards. That yardage matters. It’s not a bombers’ paradise. Yes, length helps, but placement and short-game touch separate the winners from the also-rans. Scheffler certainly has those qualities, but so do several other players in this field whose odds don’t reflect their actual viability.

The Depth of This Field Is Real

Let’s look at who else is in the conversation:

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top Favorites:

• Scottie Scheffler: +300
• Rory McIlroy: +1300 (defending champion, season debut)
• Si Woo Kim: +2200
• Xander Schauffele: +2500
• Tommy Fleetwood: +2500
• Viktor Hovland: +2700

McIlroy is defending his title and making his season debut—that’s an interesting wrinkle. Sometimes defending champions carry momentum into the following year, sometimes they don’t. In my experience, season debuts are unpredictable; you never quite know if a guy has had enough tournament reps to shake off the rust.

Tommy Fleetwood at +2500 is a player I’ve got my eye on. The man’s consistency is underrated, and he’s proven he can handle Pebble’s demands. Kannon hit Fleetwood at 14-1 at the Tour Championship last season, so there’s a proven track record of identifying when he’s primed.

And then there’s Chris Gotterup at +3100, hunting his second win in two weeks and third of the entire 2026 season. That’s genuine form, the kind that tells you someone’s game is locked in.

The Betting Market Tells a Story

What I find most compelling is the spread between Scheffler and the field. A -300 favorite is aggressive in golf, where variance is still king. In my three decades covering this tour, I’ve seen too many -300 favorites get humbled by course conditions, one bad break, or simply another player’s week arriving at the right moment.

“He’s a perfect course fit, and anyone who backs him could hit it big.”

The fact that an expert like Kannon has locked in a 30-1+ longshot as his top outright pick suggests there’s genuine value hiding in this field if you know where to look. That’s not contrarianism for its own sake—it’s recognizing that Pebble Beach, more than most courses on the tour, rewards the specific over the general.

The Bottom Line

Scheffler will likely be hard to beat. His talent is undeniable, his form is excellent, and yes, he should probably be favored. But golf isn’t played on a chalkboard. It’s played on 6,989 yards of some of the most beautiful and challenging real estate in professional sports. Pebble has a way of humbling certainty, and right now, the betting market might be a little too certain about how this week plays out.

That uncertainty? That’s opportunity. That’s also what makes this game worth following for another 35 years.