Gotterup’s Hot Hand and Scheffler’s Stumble: What We’re Really Seeing at Pebble Beach

There’s a moment in every golf season when you sit back and realize something’s shifted. After 35 years covering this tour, I’ve learned to recognize it—not always in the obvious places, but often in the contrasts. And what struck me Thursday at Pebble Beach wasn’t just that Chris Gotterup was on fire. It was what his torrid play revealed about where we are right now in professional golf, and what Scottie Scheffler’s uncharacteristic stumble might actually mean for the weeks ahead.

Let’s start with the obvious: Gotterup’s nine consecutive birdies spanning two rounds is genuinely remarkable. The man won in Phoenix last week—capped off with three straight birdies in a playoff, no less—then drove 600 miles and immediately looked like he’d never left Pebble Beach’s practice range. He shot an 8-under 64 on Thursday, making six birdies in his first six holes.

“I was kind of just coasting along,” Gotterup said. “You don’t really realize it in the moment, and then when you look up you’re like, ‘Wow, I’m 6 under through six.’ That’s nice.”

That’s nice. That’s the understatement of the week, frankly. What we witnessed was a golfer in a state of flow that transcends course conditions, elevation changes, green composition, even weather patterns. From the carpet greens and desert firmness of Phoenix to the poa annua and coastal softness of Pebble—typically, that’s a significant adjustment. For Gotterup, it was barely a speed bump.

In my experience caddying for Tom Lehman back in the ’90s, I saw that kind of momentum exactly twice over a full season. Both times, it lasted about two weeks before gravity reasserted itself. The question isn’t whether Gotterup can stay hot—it’s whether he can avoid the psychological trap of expecting to. When you’re making everything, you start to think you should make everything. That’s when the wheels fall off.

The Condition Conundrum

Here’s what fascinates me more, though: the massive scoring differential between courses on a single day. Hisatsune shot 62 at Pebble Beach. Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns were within a shot, both at 63. Meanwhile, Bradley’s 63 at Spyglass Hill was just one shot better than McIlroy’s 68 at the same venue. The course average at Spyglass was nearly one-and-a-half shots higher.

This is the new reality of the AT&T Pro-Am format, and it’s worth examining. When you have three courses in rotation on the same day with dramatically different conditions and difficulty, you’re essentially running three different tournaments simultaneously. It creates built-in advantages based entirely on the luck of the draw—not quite what we want from measuring excellence.

“It’s about as nice of a day as I’ve ever seen out here,” Bradley said. “The greens are soft but that gets them a little bumpy, too. So some of the putts are a little dicey, but definitely scoring is good.”

Bradley, to his credit, took care of business. He made the most of softer conditions but still kept a clean card when it mattered. That’s professional golf at its best: capitalizing on opportunity without losing discipline.

What’s Wrong With Scottie?

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: Scottie Scheffler shot even-par 72. Scottie. On a day when seven-under gets you top 10. At Pebble Beach, where the opening seven holes are essentially a pitch-and-putt when the wind’s down.

I don’t want to overreact—Scheffler’s too good for one round to mean much. But this is the first time since May 2021 that he’s shot even or worse in consecutive first rounds. That’s the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge back then. This time it’s Phoenix and Pebble Beach.

“I guess the challenge is making a bunch of birdies. That was a challenge for me today,” Scheffler said. “I’m looking at the leaderboard right now and it looks like 7 under gets you in the top 10, so scores are pretty low.”

What interests me about that quote is the honesty without excuse-making. Scheffler hit only two approach shots inside 10 feet and made nothing longer than 8 feet. There was a clump of mud incident on the second that cost him position, sure. But mostly? He just wasn’t sharp. And he said so.

That kind of self-awareness is actually encouraging. When Scheffler plays poorly and acknowledges it plainly, history suggests he responds quickly. We’ll likely see a very different performance Friday.

The Real Story

What strikes me most about this opening round isn’t the scores—gorgeous February weather produces gorgeous scoring everywhere. It’s the divergence in performance. Gotterup, riding genuine momentum from a playoff victory, maintained his edge. Burns made 45-foot putts and chipped in from 30 yards out. Bradley kept a clean card in tougher conditions. These are examples of tour players making the most of their moment.

Then there’s Scheffler, the best player in the world, struggling to make birdies on a scorable day. Context matters, but so does this: even the best have to earn it every single round. That’s what makes this game beautiful, and what makes moments like Gotterup’s nine-birdie streak genuinely special.

We’re just one round into Pebble Beach. Plenty of golf remains. But if Gotterup can keep even a fraction of this form through the weekend, we’re looking at something special—and a reminder that sometimes, pure momentum really is the greatest advantage in professional golf.