The Poa Annua Problem: Why This Week at Pebble Beach Separates the Real Putters from Pretenders
In 35 years covering professional golf, I’ve learned that the PGA Tour’s best players aren’t always the ones you’d expect to dominate a given week. Yes, Scottie Scheffler is playing like a man possessed—winning seven of his last 14 starts will do that—but this week at Pebble Beach Pro-Am presents something I find genuinely fascinating: a rare showcase where putting prowess on a specific grass surface becomes the ultimate equalizer.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has always been special. The dramatic coastline, the celebrity pro-am format, the prestige of playing two of California’s most storied courses—it’s appointment television for golf fans. But this year, with Signature Event status bringing $20 million in prize money and 700 FedEx Cup points to the winner, the stakes feel different. This isn’t just about glory; it’s about trajectory. These eight Signature Events are essentially the new gatekeepers for playoff positioning, and winners here will have already separated themselves from the pack before spring training ends.
When Form Meets Surface: The Scheffler Question
Let’s address the elephant on the 18th green. Scottie Scheffler is playing golf from another planet right now. But what strikes me about his Pebble Beach history is how it punctures the narrative of inevitability. He’s competed here multiple times with mixed results—a T6 and T9 appearance, plus that 2019 US Open missed cut.
“He also has four top 10s in 11 starts at Torrey Pines and Riviera (two other Californian tracks with Poa Annua greens). That’s a fine record by normal standards but with no win is down on his current norms.”
This is the kind of detail casual fans miss, but it matters enormously. In my years caddying for Tom Lehman back in the ’90s, I watched Tom struggle with certain grass types even at the height of his powers. It’s not a weakness; it’s physics. Poa Annua greens respond differently to stroke mechanics, speed, and green-reading angles. Some of the game’s greatest putters simply never mastered that particular variety.
That said, Scheffler on a seven-win tear in 14 starts is going to be a threat anywhere he plays. But I suspect we’re more likely to see him finish T6-T10 here than hoisting the trophy.
The Case for Maverick McNealy (and Why Nobody’s Talking About Him)
If Scheffler isn’t your pick, then I’d be looking hard at Maverick McNealy. And I’m genuinely puzzled why he’s not getting more attention from the national media.
McNealy has three second-place finishes at this event (2020, 2021) plus a T10 at Torrey Pines, a second-place finish at Silverado, and a seventh-place showing at Riviera. That’s not just solid form in California conditions—that’s a pattern of excellence on exactly these kinds of courses. He was T13 last week in Phoenix, which doesn’t sound spectacular until you remember he’s building consistency at the right venues.
In my experience, the best picks at Signature Events aren’t always the household names. They’re the players who’ve quietly built their records on the exact conditions you’re about to see. McNealy fits that bill perfectly.
The Poa Annua Reckoning
Here’s what fascinates me most about this week: the emergence of what I’m calling the Poa Annua Problem. Some of the PGA Tour’s most talented players will struggle mightily because they can’t get comfortable on this surface.
“Take Tommy Fleetwood. He’s played at Pebble four times and he’s still looking for a first top 20 and in his last three visits he has a best Putting rank of 59th.”
Fleetwood is a world-class golfer—a four-time European Tour winner and Ryder Cup stalwart. Yet Pebble Beach has become his personal Bermuda Triangle.
Harry Hall presents an even more puzzling case. Hall is legitimately one of the PGA Tour’s finest putters overall, yet on California Poa he’s managed just one top-40 finish in eight attempts.
“In eight starts on it he has a best finish of just T34 in the 2023 edition of this event – and it was his only top 40.”
This isn’t about talent; it’s about adaptation to a very specific technical challenge.
Corey Conners and Cameron Young offer similar cautionary tales. These aren’t journeymen players—they’re accomplished competitors who’ve hit a wall on these particular greens. Without a cut this week, they’ll have to endure four rounds of frustration, which is actually kind of brutal when you think about it.
Rose’s Redemption Arc
Justin Rose won this tournament in 2023 and has five top-12 finishes in seven starts here overall. Fresh off his Farmers Insurance Open victory two weeks ago, he’s playing with confidence and has a legitimate track record of fast starts. His seven career Pebble starts have yielded five finishes of T12 or better, and his first-round tendencies suggest we might see him in contention early.
What I like about Rose for this week is that he’s not just playing well; he’s proven he can handle these conditions consistently. That’s worth something in a field this strong.
Looking Ahead
The beauty of the new Signature Event format is that it gives us weekly drama with real playoff implications. Unlike some years where February feels like treading water, these tournaments matter immediately. For Maverick McNealy, for Shane Lowry’s redemption arc, for Rose and Day and the other specialists in these coastal conditions—this week isn’t just another event.
It’s where the pretenders start getting exposed and the students of their craft reveal themselves. That’s what keeps me interested after 35 years in this business.
