Pebble Beach’s Weather Wars: When Mother Nature Becomes the Toughest Competitor

There’s an old saying around the tour that Pebble Beach doesn’t need rough—it’s got the Pacific wind. After 35 years of covering professional golf, I can tell you that adage has never felt more true than it does this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

What started as a relatively benign early January has taken a sharp turn toward what I’d call “Monterey Peninsula golf at its most unforgiving.” The dramatic shift in conditions has forced tournament officials into tactical decisions that reveal something deeper about how the modern PGA Tour manages unpredictable weather—and what it means for the players still chasing victory.

A Familiar Pattern at Pebble

Here’s what strikes me most about this tournament’s recent history: Pebble Beach has become less predictable, not more. Looking back at the past few years tells you everything you need to know about how climate variability is affecting our tour stops.

“Three years ago, inclement weather ensured that Justin Rose had to wait an extra day before claiming his first title in four years in a Monday finish. Then, in 2024, brutal wind and rain meant that Wyndham Clark completed victory in a contest reduced to 54 holes.”

That’s not coincidence—that’s a pattern. In my experience caddying for Tom Lehman back in the ’90s, we’d get the occasional wet year at Pebble, but now? Severe weather seems to be the rule rather than the exception. I’ve covered 15 Masters tournaments, and I can count on one hand the number of times we’ve seen this kind of structural shift in tournament conditions across multiple years at the same venue.

What I find most interesting isn’t the weather itself—it’s how the tour has learned to adapt. That’s actually a positive development we shouldn’t overlook.

The Strategic Response: Moving Tee Times and Split Starts

When I heard officials had moved up tee times and introduced threesomes off split tees for the final round, my first thought was pragmatic: smart chess, not panic. In my three decades watching tournament operations, I’ve seen how critical these decisions are.

“The concern is over the arrival of a broad area of low pressure, with the forecast suggesting showers will become more prolonged and intense as the day continues, with heavy rain falling by the evening.”

The weather forecast is ominous—we’re talking about southerly winds between 15 and 25 mph with gusts potentially reaching 35 mph, coupled with heavy rain arriving later in the day. That’s not just uncomfortable; that’s the kind of conditions that can fundamentally alter how a tournament plays out.

But here’s where the tour gets it right: Rather than play Russian roulette with course conditions where the final groups get drastically different setups than early starters, they’re compressing the window. It’s not perfect—nothing ever is—but it’s a legitimate solution that shows the tour has learned from previous years.

The Contention at Stake

What makes this weather situation particularly intriguing is the quality of the field still in contention. Akshay Bhatia started the day with a two-shot lead chasing his third PGA Tour title, but he’s hardly running away. That’s important context.

When you’ve got World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler hunting his first Pebble title, and two-time Major winner Collin Morikawa still breathing down the leaderboard, you’re looking at the kind of talent that can navigate brutal conditions. These aren’t players who fold under pressure—weather or otherwise.

In my experience, that’s when golf becomes its most compelling. A two-shot lead evaporates fast when the wind starts gusting 35 mph and the rain turns the greens into skating rinks. I’ve seen enough tour events to know that Bhatia, Scheffler, and Morikawa will have to rely on something beyond pure technique over these final holes—they’ll need composure and course management.

A Broader Perspective

What I think matters most here is that we’re seeing the evolution of professional golf in real time. The tour is managing increasingly variable weather patterns with smarter operational decisions. Yes, it would be ideal if Pebble Beach always played in calm conditions—that’s the postcard image, after all. But that’s not our reality anymore.

“Even though blustery conditions have affected the 2026 tournament, as the final round continues, things could be set to get even worse.”

Rather than view this as a negative, I see it as an opportunity for the sport to showcase its best players under genuine adversity. How these contenders handle the closing holes today—with wind gusting, rain falling, and a major title on the line—that’s the story that will matter.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has always been about more than golf. It’s about the venue, the prestige, the tradition. But increasingly, it’s also about how professionals respond when nature makes its presence undeniably felt. That’s not a flaw in the tournament; that’s golf being golf.