The 2025 Audit: What Golf’s Statistical Deep Dive Reveals About 2026’s Title Contenders

We’re two months into the 2026 PGA Tour season, and I’ve been around this game long enough to know that the real stories don’t always make the highlight reels. They live in the numbers—specifically, in how players gained or lost strokes in five critical areas of their games last year. After 35 years covering professional golf, I’ve learned that the teams winning majors aren’t usually the ones making the biggest splashes in January. They’re the ones who quietly fixed what was broken.

The 2025 statistical audit tells us something fascinating: this year’s contenders won’t be the same names dominating 2026’s leaderboards. Some players made dramatic improvements that will carry them forward. Others—despite their pedigree—hit walls they need to climb over. And a few are walking a tightrope between brilliance and mediocrity in ways that should concern their camps.

The Drivers Who Rewrote Their Stories

Let’s start with the most dramatic turnarounds off the tee. Rickie Fowler’s +90 ranking in strokes gained off the tee reads like a redemption arc. Having lost strokes off the tee for the first time in his career in 2024, Fowler “fought back in a major way. The former Players Championship winner experienced his best driving season since 2018 and set up the rest of his game, allowing him to gain strokes throughout the bag.” At 37 heading toward 40, this isn’t just statistical noise—it’s a lifeline.

In my experience as a former caddie for Tom Lehman, I saw firsthand how one solid fundamental can unlock an entire game. When you’re hitting more fairways and driving it longer, suddenly your iron distances become more predictable, your approach angles improve, and confidence builds. Fowler could be dangerous in 2026.

Then there’s J.J. Spaun’s +70 improvement off the tee. The U.S. Open champion didn’t just find distance; he found consistency. “He gained both distance and accuracy, and in doing so, gained recognition. The world No. 6 memorably drove the green on the 71st hole at Oakmont and split the fairway on the last to put the championship on ice.” That’s not luck. That’s a player who identified a weakness and fixed it systematically.

The flip side? Xander Schauffele’s -91 decline off the tee is a yellow flag for a player who won two majors in 2024. Yes, there were injury concerns and a new driver adjustment period, but “his driving splits were checkered for most of the year.” Two-time major champions can’t afford checkered anything. Schauffele will figure it out—he’s too talented not to—but this reminds us that even the best need to treat their fundamentals like a daily meditation, not a quarterly check-in.

Where the Tour Championship Was Really Won

What strikes me about the approach play rankings is how they predict major success. Justin Rose’s +102 gain isn’t just a statistic; it’s evidence of a 45-year-old playing some of the best golf of his life. Here’s a player who won the St. Jude Championship and finished 72 holes trailing no one at the Masters. That’s the kind of resume that makes you wonder what Rose might do if he continues this trajectory into the U.S. Open or Open Championship.

But the real story here is Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman’s +86 approach improvement catapulted him to world No. 3 behind Scheffler and McIlroy. “His iron play kept pace. He claimed his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Tour Championship and then claimed another on the DP World Tour in India.” More impressively: “Fleetwood’s last 17 worldwide starts in 2025 produced two wins and seven top-four finishes.”

That’s not fluky. That’s a player executing under pressure at the highest level. When you can gain over 80 strokes with your scoring clubs in a calendar year, you’re not just improving—you’re ascending.

The concerning name here is Tony Finau, whose -133 approach decline is alarming given his overall game’s strength. After nearly matching Scheffler’s excellence in 2024, Finau became “a middling player with his scoring clubs in hand.” For a long hitter like Finau, losing edge in the 100-150 yard range is particularly damaging because that’s where his distance advantage should translate to scoring advantage.

The Putting Revolution That Changed Everything

I’ve been to 15 Masters, and I can tell you: the Masters isn’t won on the back nine on Sunday. It’s won in the practice green on Tuesday. Putting trends matter more than almost any other metric because they’re often the last thing to click—and the first thing to unravel.

Justin Thomas’s +146 putting gain is the season’s biggest storyline in that department. Thomas went from bottom-tier to top-30 after a conversation with Schauffele about practice habits. That single conversation led to his RBC Heritage victory. In my experience, that’s rare. Most players don’t pivot based on peer advice. Thomas did, and it worked.

Cameron Young’s +138 improvement tells a different story—one of raw talent finally finding its expression on the greens. “The former Rookie of the Year nabbed his first career title at the Wyndham Championship en route to being selected for the U.S. Ryder Cup team, where he was brilliant in his debut.” Young went from promising to productive, and his Ryder Cup dominance suggests this isn’t a fluke. Major championships could follow.

Then there’s Scottie Scheffler, who somehow managed to gain +55 in putting—the only category he needed to improve in. The claw grip from inside 15 feet transformed him into one of the world’s best putters. “The way he rolled the rock at Royal Portrush was scary … scary good and scary, period, for the rest of the world.” When the best player in the world improves his only weakness, everyone else is basically playing for second place.

Rory McIlroy’s +50 putting gain deserves mention here too. After years of missing crucial putts, McIlroy “made just about every one of them in 2025.” He’s finally combining his ball-striking excellence with clutch putting, and that combination has historically won major championships.

What This Means for 2026

The 2025 audit isn’t about yesterday’s golf. It’s a roadmap to 2026’s winners. The players who made strategic improvements—not just statistical gains, but meaningful fixes to specific weaknesses—are the ones who’ll be holding trophies this year. Fleetwood, Young, Rose, Fowler, and Thomas are all positioned better than they were 12 months ago.

Meanwhile, players like Finau and Schauffele have real work ahead. They’re not in crisis, but they’re behind schedule. That matters on the PGA Tour more than most casual fans realize.

The 2026 season just started, but it was essentially written in 2025’s practice ranges and greens.