Scheffler’s Coronation at Pebble Beach Feels Inevitable—But Golf’s Wild Card Factor Might Have Other Plans
There’s a certain gravity that pulls toward inevitability in professional golf these days, and Scottie Scheffler has become the sun around which everything else orbits. Coming into this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the world No. 1 sits at +300 odds—essentially the betting equivalent of “why are we even playing the other 155 guys?” And I get it. The man has 20 career wins since turning pro in 2020, and he’s already notched his first victory of the season at The Desert Classic just last month.
But here’s what strikes me after 35 years covering this tour: the courses that demand precision, creativity, and adaptability—the kind of tests that Pebble Beach represents—have always been the ones that occasionally humble even the most dominant players. That par-72 layout measuring 6,989 yards isn’t just another stop on the schedule. It’s a puzzle box.
When Dominance Gets Tested
In my experience caddying for Tom Lehman back in the day, I learned that Pebble Beach separates the thinkers from the strikers. You can muscle your way around most modern Tour venues with length and precision, but Pebble demands emotional intelligence. It wants you to respect the ocean wind, to understand that sometimes a 6-iron is smarter than a 5, to know when to take your medicine and move on. Scheffler has proven he’s got that in spades—but so did everyone before someone else won.
The field this week is genuinely interesting, which is saying something in an era where Scheffler’s mere presence tends to flatten the drama. You’ve got Rory McIlroy making his season debut at +1300 odds as the defending champion. Having a two-week break between now and his last competitive round could be a feature or a bug; McIlroy thrives on momentum, but he’s also one of golf’s consummate professionals who doesn’t need much time to shake off rust. Si Woo Kim, Viktor Hovland, and Tommy Fleetwood all sit in that mid-tier odds range where one good round becomes two, and suddenly you’re asking yourself why you didn’t have the guts to back them.
The Schauffele Question
One name jumping out at me from the expert analysis is Xander Schauffele, and not because I think he’s a lock. The opposite, actually. According to Brady Kannon, an expert with genuine predictive chops:
“Schauffele has drifted into the mid-20s as far as odds to win this week and I’ve even seen him in the low 30s. He missed the cut two weeks ago at Torrey Pines, his first missed cut on Tour in 73 starts, and he nearly missed it again last week in Phoenix.”
Now, I want to be careful here because Schauffele is a phenomenal player—we’re not talking about someone with fundamental issues. But what we’re witnessing is a player trying to find his footing after missing the cut for the first time in 73 tries. That’s not a random blip; that’s a pattern forming. The injury issues from last year apparently haven’t fully resolved, and Pebble Beach doesn’t forgive lapses in confidence. The course is too unforgiving, the ocean too willing to swallow mistakes.
Looking for Value
What fascinates me most about this week is the genuine quality lurking at longer odds. Kannon has apparently identified a player going off at better than 30-1 who represents a “perfect course fit.” Without spoiling his specific pick, I’ll say this: Pebble Beach has a history of rewarding golfers who understand links-style play, who aren’t afraid to flight the ball lower, who’ve spent time in places like Scotland or Ireland learning how wind and firm turf interact. That kind of pedigree doesn’t always light up the odds board, but it wins tournaments.
The broader field is solid. Russell Henley at +3300 is a capable player. Ben Griffin, coming off that impressive win in New Orleans with Andrew Novak, understands what it takes to win under pressure. Harris English’s 110-1 victory last season at Farmers Insurance Open is the kind of reminder that this game still has capacity for surprise.
“He’s completely fading Xander Schauffele, one of the favorites at +2500, avoiding him in outright bets and advises to go against him in head-to-head bets as well.”
That kind of contrarian positioning, based on actual form data rather than reputation, is what separates the analytical bettors from the casual crowd.
The Scheffler Reality
Let me be clear: backing Scheffler at +300 isn’t crazy. The man is playing world-class golf. But it’s also the betting equivalent of playing it safe, and safe rarely generates the kind of stories that make this sport worth following. In my three decades covering golf, I’ve learned that the best tournaments are the ones where the favorite doesn’t quite get there—where someone hungry, someone with a chip on their shoulder or something to prove, grabs the moment.
Pebble Beach, with its ocean cliffs and its particular demands, feels like it could be that kind of stage. Scheffler’s dominance is real and probably doesn’t end this week. But golf’s wonderful capacity to surprise—that’s real too.
We’ll find out starting Thursday at 11:45 a.m. ET.
