Bhatia’s Lead Holds, But Pebble’s Teeth Come Out as Morikawa’s Momentum Builds

I’ve walked these Pebble Beach fairways in January for 15 years now, and Saturday’s third round was a textbook reminder: this place doesn’t owe anybody anything. Akshay Bhatia learned that lesson the hard way, and so did defending champion Rory McIlroy. But what struck me most wasn’t the wind or the cold—it was watching Collin Morikawa remind everyone why he matters.

Let’s start with what we thought we knew. Bhatia came out firing on all cylinders, going out in 30 with six birdies in seven holes. At that point, watching from the 10th tee, it felt like a coronation was in progress. Five shots clear is the kind of cushion that usually translates to champagne on Sunday evening. But Pebble, in her fickle way, had other ideas.

When Perfect Play Isn’t Enough

Here’s what I think separates good players from great ones: understanding that golf courses have moods, and this one was in a particularly ornery mood Saturday afternoon. Bhatia’s back nine told the story—two bogeys, zero birdies, and an outgoing 38 that would’ve embarrassed most of us weekend hackers. Yet he still leads by two at 19-under 197.

“All in all, yeah, weird day. Felt like I lost some ground toward the end, but then I realized it just played so much harder for some of the guys that were in some of the last tee times.”

That’s maturity speaking. Bhatia didn’t whine about the conditions—he acknowledged the reality that the golf course changes dramatically as the day progresses. Having caddied for Tom Lehman during some brutal U.S. Opens, I’ve seen how the best players manage these shifts. Bhatia’s doing it.

The real story, though? Collin Morikawa just fired a 62.

The Resurrection Nobody Expected

I need to be honest: Morikawa’s past two years have been painful to watch. A two-time major winner—and I mean a real major winner, not someone who finished seventh—has basically disappeared from leaderboards. Missing the cut in Hawaii to start 2026 was the kind of thing that makes you wonder if the swing issues are philosophical at this point, not just mechanical.

Then Saturday happened. Eleven birdies. Eighteen greens in regulation. He jumped 25 spots on the leaderboard to a three-way tie for second with Jake Knapp and Sepp Straka. In my experience covering this tour, momentum matters more than people think. A round like that—especially one with that kind of pristine ball-striking—doesn’t just help you climb the leaderboard. It rewires your confidence.

“I’ve been really focused on just trying to build this momentum, just making it myself and it’s finally paid off today. We’ve got some work tomorrow, for sure.”

That’s not desperation talking. That’s a guy who believes he’s found something. Whether it holds for 18 more holes is another story entirely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Morikawa’s in contention come Sunday evening.

The Chaos Factor

You want to know what makes Pebble special—and occasionally maddening? The final hour of Saturday’s play gave us all the proof we need. Min Woo Lee spent 50 minutes on the 18th hole playing from the hedges. His ball kept moving on the putting green. That’s not golf—that’s theater. Expensive, frustrating theater.

What fascinated me was how players responded. Jake Knapp, the smooth-swinging Southern Californian, holed out from 130 yards on the first and then somehow managed to stay composed through the chaos to shoot 66. Sam Burns literally holed a greenside bunker shot. These aren’t just lucky moments—they’re the kinds of breaks that build belief.

“It’s not going to be pretty at all times. You’re going to have some funky stuff happen and just have to deal with it. I think anytime you get bad elements and stuff like that you just have to do a good job of not letting it bug you.”

Knapp’s right. And here’s the thing: that attitude is exactly what wins signature events. Technical excellence matters, sure. But tournament play—the mental side, the ability to compartmentalize—that’s what separates Sunday winners from Sunday also-rans.

McIlroy’s Nightmare Continues

I’d be remiss not to mention what happened to the defending champion. Rory shot 72 and fell 10 shots back. A triple bogey from a drive onto the beach at the 4th. A double on the 18th from an out-of-bounds drive. Two three-putt double bogeys from 5 feet earlier in the week. A shank on a par 5 on Friday.

In 35 years covering this tour, I’ve seen slumps. I’ve seen bad weeks. But this feels different—like something structural has shifted. That said, Rory’s been through worse. Sunday’s forecast includes significant wind and rain, and sometimes those brutal conditions are exactly what a player in crisis needs to simplify and regroup.

What Sunday Means

Starting times are being moved up an hour due to weather. Big wind and rain incoming. Conditions that’ll separate the pretenders from the contenders in about six hours. Bhatia’s got a two-shot lead but needs to hold serve against a resurgent Morikawa and several other hungry players.

For Knapp, it’s a chance to lock in his Masters spot and earn status for the rest of the signature events. For Morikawa, it’s potentially the reset his career desperately needs. For Bhatia, it’s a chance to prove Saturday’s struggles were just the course fighting back.

Scottie Scheffler, lurking eight back with a bogey-free 67, is waiting in the wings like he always is. That’s Scottie—relentless, patient, dangerous.

Sunday at Pebble should be everything a signature event promises to be. I’ll have my coffee ready early.