Parity’s Prize: Why 2026 Looks Nothing Like Scheffler’s Dominance of 2024

There’s a funny thing that happens in professional golf when you think you’ve figured out the pecking order. Just when one player starts looking invincible—winning half the signature events like Scottie Scheffler did in 2024—the calendar flips and suddenly everybody’s got a shot.

That’s what 2025 handed us, and it’s what we’re walking into this week at Pebble Beach with the 2026 AT&T Pro-Am kicking off the new signature event season. And I have to tell you, after 35 years covering this tour, I find it genuinely refreshing.

When the Pendulum Swings

Let’s be clear about what happened last year. Scheffler’s 2024 campaign wasn’t just dominant—it was almost suffocating for everyone else watching from the gallery. Winning half of eight signature events is the kind of dominance you see maybe once a decade, if that. I caddie for Tom Lehman back in the ’90s, and even during his best stretches, there were windows for other guys to break through. That’s the nature of professional golf.

What strikes me about 2025 is that the tour corrected itself naturally. All eight signature events went to different winners. That’s not a coincidence, and it’s not because Scheffler suddenly forgot how to play. It’s because the field tightened up, competitors adjusted, and the money—oh, the money—made every single week feel like a major.

“All eight were won by different players in 2025. Parity was the name of the game as winner’s checks worth $3.6 million and $4 million for the player invitationals were doled out to a variety of names, including not only Scheffler but Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, among others.”

That’s the headline that tells the real story. McIlroy’s spring in California was memorable not because he swept everything—though winning Pebble Beach, The Players, and the Masters in one season is absolutely elite company—but because he was playing alongside guys who could legitimately challenge him week to week.

The Purse Talk Nobody Wants to Have (But Should)

Here’s where I tip my hand a bit: the money matters more than we like to admit in polite golf company. When you’ve got a $20 million purse at Pebble Beach with the winner taking home $3.6 million, suddenly your 45th-ranked player in the world sees a realistic path to six figures just for showing up and making the cut.

Look at this breakdown:

“Every player inside the top 10 will clear $500,000 and those inside the top 20 will each earn north of $250,000.”

That’s not pocket change for most of the tour. That’s a life-changing week for guys who aren’t Rory or Scheffler. And you know what? I think that’s genuinely good for the game. When the middle of the field has something concrete to chase beyond just FedEx Cup points and world ranking movements, you get better golf. You get guys taking risks they wouldn’t otherwise take.

In my experience, the best golf happens when the stakes feel personal and immediate, not abstract. A $250,000 check for finishing 20th beats a philosophical discussion about “elevated events” every single time.

McIlroy’s Moment, Fleetwood’s Return

Both McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood make their 2026 PGA Tour debuts this week at Pebble Beach, and that alone tells you something about how the tour’s structured now. The reigning champ in McIlroy comes in as the favorite, obviously, but Fleetwood’s presence—the guy who won the FedEx Cup just a year ago—reminds us that consistency across the full season matters more than ever.

McIlroy’s 2025 spring was genuinely one of the best stretches I’ve witnessed in years. Winning at Pebble Beach, then The Players, then the Masters? That’s a resume moment. That’s the kind of sequence that gets replayed on highlight reels for the next decade. But what I’m watching for this week is whether he can do it again, because that’s when we separate the one-year wonders from the truly great ones.

The field he’s facing at Pebble Beach is 80 players deep with legitimate talent. That’s a different challenge than dominating a weaker field, and it’s a problem that Scheffler solved beautifully in 2024 and that a shifting cast of characters solved in 2025.

What This Means Moving Forward

I think 2026 is going to look a lot more like 2025 than 2024. The parity we saw last year wasn’t a fluke—it was the system working exactly as intended. When you elevate the purses, you elevate the commitment from the best players in the world to show up and compete every single week. And when eight guys win eight signature events, that’s not weakness in the field. That’s strength in depth.

The question now is whether Scheffler finds his way back to dominance or whether we’re genuinely entering an era where the tour spreads the wealth around more democratically. My money’s on something in between—elite players will still win more often than not, but the margins shrink, and the surprises come more frequently.

We’ll know a lot more after this week. Pebble Beach has a way of revealing exactly where everyone stands.