Gotterup’s Momentum Machine vs. Scheffler’s Struggle: What Thursday at Pebble Really Tells Us

There’s a moment in every golf season when you look at the leaderboard and realize something’s shifted. Thursday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am gave us one of those moments—though maybe not the one everyone’s focusing on.

Yes, Chris Gotterup is playing out of his mind. Yes, Ryo Hisatsune’s 62 is a beautiful scorecard. But what really caught my eye after 35 years covering this tour is what happened in the first six holes of Gotterup’s round and what *didn’t* happen in Scottie Scheffler’s entire day. That contrast tells us something important about momentum, conditions, and the difference between being locked in and being locked out.

The Art of Riding a Wave

Gotterup’s nine-birdie streak spanning two rounds and two completely different courses is genuinely rare. I’ve watched a lot of golf—caddied for Tom Lehman back when we were all figuring out how to make a living on tour—and I can tell you: momentum like this doesn’t come around often. The fact that he’s carrying it from the desert greens of Phoenix to the poa annua nightmare of Pebble says something about his mental state right now.

“I was kind of just coasting along. You don’t really realize it in the moment, and then when you look up you’re like, ‘Wow, I’m 6 under through six.’ That’s nice.”

That’s the telling quote. Gotterup isn’t overthinking it. He’s in that zone where good golf feels inevitable rather than forced. Two wins already this season, and now he’s threatening to make Pebble’s notoriously generous early holes look like a par-3 course. He shot 64 in conditions that favored low scoring, sure, but so did half the field. He made *six straight birdies*—the first golfer in 25 years to do so immediately after a tournament victory.

In my experience, that kind of rhythm is contagious within a player’s own psyche. Gotterup isn’t pressing anymore. He’s playing.

Scheffler’s Uncharacteristic Struggle

Now, let’s talk about the elephant on the leaderboard. Scottie Scheffler shot even par on a day when the field average looked like a scramble. This is noteworthy precisely *because* it’s noteworthy for Scheffler.

What strikes me about his round isn’t that he shot 72—it happens to everyone. It’s that this represents his first back-to-back opening rounds of even-par or worse since May 2021. That’s nearly five years of consistency. The mud on his ball at the par-5 second didn’t help, sure. The strong wind into him on the back nine was real. But here’s what I observed between the lines: Scheffler hit only two approach shots inside 10 feet and missed them both. He didn’t make a putt longer than 8 feet.

“I guess the challenge is making a bunch of birdies. That was a challenge for me today. I’m looking at the leaderboard right now and it looks like 7 under gets you in the top 10, so scores are pretty low.”

There’s no panic in that statement, which is good. Scheffler’s too experienced to let one round—even an off one—derail him. But the pattern matters: he also struggled in Round 1 at Phoenix before rallying. Sometimes the best thing about being the best player in the world is that you can afford an off day and still have time to course-correct.

Still, I’d be curious to see if his team talks about that second shot from the fairway after the mud incident. Those moments can linger.

The Course Conditions Wild Card

One thing that needs acknowledging: Pebble Beach without wind plays like a different golf course. Bradley and Burns benefited from what Bradley himself called perfect conditions, while McIlroy—the defending champion—battled breeze and soft greens at Spyglass that made precision even more critical.

“It’s about as nice of a day as I’ve ever seen out here. The greens are soft but that gets them a little bumpy, too. So some of the putts are a little dicey, but definitely scoring is good.”

This is the rotating-course format at work. It creates genuine inequity day-to-day, which is why you see Hisatsune’s 62 at Pebble and Bradley’s 63 at Spyglass separated by course difficulty. Neither should be dinged—the format is what it is. But it’s worth noting that Gotterup and Hisatsune both feasted on the opening holes where poa annua cooperates and the ocean breeze stays quiet.

By contrast, Burns—who sits just one shot back—had to work harder for his positioning. He made significant putts from 45 and 30 feet and pitched in from 30 yards on the 13th. That’s the kind of scrambling that tends to continue when you’ve got the hot putter.

What Matters Moving Forward

Gotterup’s momentum is real and dangerous. Scheffler will adjust and probably contend by Sunday. Hisatsune’s been playing well enough to qualify for signature events, which tells you he belongs in this conversation. And McIlroy is still McIlroy—one decent round away from relevance.

But here’s what I’m watching: whether Gotterup can maintain this while the field tightens up and conditions potentially change. Momentum in golf is powerful, but it’s also fragile. One bad break, one poor swing, and it can evaporate. Having caddied in the ’90s, I learned that the guys who sustain their runs are the ones who don’t get too confident when things click.

Gotterup seems wise enough for that. But Friday will tell us more than Thursday ever could.