Scottsdale’s Ballstriking Test: Why Profile Over Pedigree Matters at the WMPO

I’ve watched the Waste Management Phoenix Open evolve from a wide-open birdie fest into something more nuanced—a course that still rewards aggression but increasingly separates players based on one specific skill: the ability to put yourself in position repeatedly with your irons, then have the discipline not to force it.

That’s not exactly breaking news. What *is* interesting this year is watching the betting market and daily fantasy community correctly identify which players have that profile versus which ones are riding name recognition into inflated prices. After 35 years covering this tour, I can tell you that disconnect happens every February at Scottsdale, and it creates real opportunity—but also real landmines for casual bettors.

The Setup: Scoring Without the Circus

Last year’s winner shooting 24-under and winning by seven shots tells you everything about TPC Scottsdale’s current setup. The course isn’t playing as a penalty box; it’s playing as a birdie buffet. That should favor guys who can weaponize their irons and create a high volume of scoreable opportunities.

But here’s what I’ve noticed covering 15 Masters and countless desert events: volume of opportunities only matters if you can convert without self-destructing. I’ve seen plenty of aggressive players leak one or two shots on par-5s trying to get too cute, and suddenly they’re chasing instead of contending.

The players Maldonado has identified—McNealy, Coody, Si Woo Kim—they all share something beyond just good recent finishes. They share a *profile* that actually matches Scottsdale’s demands.

McNealy and the Iron Play Thesis

Maverick McNealy ranking 13th tee-to-green and 18th in iron play isn’t a contradiction; it’s a calling card. What strikes me about McNealy’s profile is that he’s not trying to win the tournament with his putter—he’s trying to win it by giving himself enough looks that even an average putting week leaves him in the mix.

“I’m trusting the profile and not just finishes. McNealy does most of his damage tee-to-green (13th), especially with his irons (18th). Give yourself enough looks inside 20 feet over and over again and you’ve got a shot to contend.”

That’s the sound analysis here. Having caddied for Tom Lehman back in the late ’90s, I learned something that still holds true: players who engineer their own odds—who create quantity of chances—are dramatically more reliable than players waiting for the putter to get hot. McNealy’s recent performances at Summerrin and Twin Cities, both “second shot” courses like Scottsdale, actually matter more than one might think.

I’m not suggesting McNealy’s a lock, but at +125 for a top-20 finish, you’re getting fairly compensated for a player whose ballstriking profile genuinely fits the test.

The Consistency Play: Coody’s Floor

Pierceson Coody represents a different angle entirely—what I’d call the “floor-first” approach to Scottsdale. In my experience, this course occasionally rewards the player who shoots 67-66-69-68 over the guy trying to light it up with 64-71-65-70.

“Keep the ball in play, hit a ton of greens, and avoid big numbers. Coody checks those boxes. He’s quietly strong from tee to green (7th), and excels with greens in regulation and bogey avoidance.”

What’s fascinating about Coody is that he finished top-20 at both The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open—courses with notably tougher ballstriking demands than Scottsdale. That’s valuable context. He’s already proven he can execute when the course isn’t playing as a pure birdie fest. At Scottsdale, where conditions figure to be more forgiving, his consistency profile should actually thrive. The math on +110 for top-30 is compelling.

Si Woo Kim: The Ballstriking Insurance Policy

I want to spotlight Si Woo Kim specifically because he’s entered an interesting window. Five consecutive top-20 finishes isn’t luck—that’s a player whose game is operating at a genuine level. The numbers back it: second in the field tee-to-green, fourth on approach shots, solid bogey avoidance.

“Scottsdale is a birdie track, but the big numbers can sneak in if you get sloppy. Kim’s ballstriking can avoid that sloppiness. Course history is steady, finishing top 25 here multiple times, including T12 in 2024.”

Here’s my take: Si Woo’s recurring worry is his putting. It’s streaky, as most putting can be. But in a week where the ballstriking metrics are so strong and so consistent, you’re essentially betting that solid iron play produces enough looks that even an average putting performance cashes at top-20. That’s a reasonable thesis.

The Cautionary Tale: Name Equity vs. Form

What I appreciate about Maldonado’s analysis is the willingness to fade Xander Schauffele at $10,500 in daily fantasy despite his world ranking. I’ve covered enough tour events to know that name equity is a powerful drug in betting markets—but it’s a terrible strategy.

The specifics here matter: minimal recent reps, soft ballstriking metrics at Torrey, no separation in scoring trends to justify the salary premium. In other words, Schauffele hasn’t *earned* that price with his recent play. That’s the kind of disciplined thinking that separates winning bettors from the rest.

The Bigger Picture

What we’re seeing at Scottsdale this year is a tour increasingly defined by ballstriking precision and consistency over boom-or-bust volatility. The players who can manufacture chances and avoid catastrophe—McNealy, Coody, Si Woo—they’re better positioned than ever. The guys coasting on reputation and historical success? They’re getting exposed more quickly than they used to.

That’s not cynicism. That’s just the tour evolving.