Gotterup’s Hot Hand and Scheffler’s Slow Start: What Thursday at Pebble Beach Really Tells Us

There’s a moment in every correspondent’s career when you realize you’re watching something genuinely rare unfold in front of you. Thursday at Pebble Beach was one of those moments, though perhaps not in the way the leaderboard might suggest.

Yes, Chris Gotterup shot an 8-under 64 and extended a nine-birdie streak across two tournaments. Yes, Ryo Hisatsune’s 62 from Pebble Beach grabbed the lead. Yes, the scoring was so low across the field that a 7-under round barely cracks the top 10. But here’s what really caught my eye after 35 years watching professional golf unfold: Scottie Scheffler shot even par, and that matters far more than his current position on the leaderboard.

When the Best Struggles, Pay Attention

I’ve caddied for winners, covered champions, and interviewed legends. I can tell you that momentum in professional golf isn’t just about scores—it’s about how you respond when conditions aren’t cooperating. Scheffler’s even-par 72 at Pebble Beach, a course that was practically giving away birdies on Thursday, is a yellow flag I’d be waving if I were in his camp.

What makes this moment significant is context. This marks the first time since May 2021—when he was still very much developing his game—that Scheffler has shot even or worse in the opening round of consecutive PGA Tour starts. That’s five years of consistency suddenly interrupted. The mud on his second-hole fairway shot that sailed 30 yards left wasn’t bad luck; it was a symptom of a larger problem: he simply wasn’t sharp.

“I guess the challenge is making a bunch of birdies. That was a challenge for me today,” Scheffler said. “I’m looking at the leaderboard right now and it looks like 7 under gets you in the top 10, so scores are pretty low.”

Notice the self-awareness there. Scheffler knows what he’s supposed to do in these conditions, and he knows he didn’t do it. In my experience, that kind of clarity is the first step to a turnaround. But it’s also proof that even the game’s best player isn’t immune to off days—especially when conditions shift rapidly from one tournament to the next.

Gotterup’s Momentum Is the Real Story

Now let’s talk about the actual leader board leader. Chris Gotterup won the Phoenix Open last week in a playoff, and now he’s extended that hot streak to nine consecutive birdies across two different courses, two vastly different conditions, and two entirely different playing surfaces. That’s not luck. That’s not the greens happening to be soft. That’s a golfer who’s locked in.

What strikes me about Gotterup’s performance is the casual way he processed his own brilliance:

“I was kind of just coasting along. You don’t really realize it in the moment, and then when you look up you’re like, ‘Wow, I’m 6 under through six.’ That’s nice.”

That kind of flow state—where excellence becomes almost automatic—is exactly what separates a hot streak from a sustained run of excellence. Gotterup, who already has two wins in 2026, has figured something out. He’s not overthinking it. He’s not forcing it. He’s simply executing, and that’s dangerous for the rest of the field.

The Course Setup Problem Nobody’s Talking About

Here’s something I noticed that the headline numbers don’t fully capture: Pebble Beach without wind isn’t a championship golf course on opening day. It’s a pitch-and-putt with ocean views.

Both Gotterup and Hisatsune made five and six birdies respectively in the opening seven holes. Those are the easiest holes on the property, and with no wind, they’re not challenging anything except maybe your patience waiting between shots. Keegan Bradley, playing the considerably tougher Spyglass Hill, still managed a 7-under 65—and that only because he chipped in for eagle on No. 8.

“It’s about as nice of a day as I’ve ever seen out here. The greens are soft but that gets them a little bumpy, too. So some of the putts are a little dicey, but definitely scoring is good.”

Bradley’s right about the conditions being anomalous. In 35 years covering this event, I’ve seen Pebble Beach play at wildly different levels depending on wind and setup. Thursday’s flat conditions inflated the scoring for early starters, and that’s worth remembering as we move through the weekend.

The Burns Factor and That Back Nine

Sam Burns finished tied for second at 7-under, and his performance was actually more impressive than the final score suggests. Unlike Gotterup, Burns didn’t pillage the front nine. Instead, he built his round methodically, including a gutsy approach on No. 8 over the ocean and a pitch-in from 30 yards on No. 13. Burns led the field in putting, which matters enormously in a course-hopping event where consistency is harder to find.

Burns didn’t make a bogey. In conditions this generous, that’s not shocking, but it speaks to controlled aggression—exactly what wins tournaments.

Looking Ahead

We’re one round into a three-course event. The narrative will change multiple times before Sunday. But this much is clear: Gotterup has earned his place at the top through genuine excellence, Scheffler’s struggles shouldn’t be overblown (he’s rallied before from slow starts), and the scoring will tighten considerably once the wind returns.

What I’m watching closest over the next 54 holes isn’t who’s leading. It’s whether Gotterup can maintain his emotional equilibrium when conditions inevitably get tougher, and whether Scheffler can rediscover that precision that made him the world’s No. 1 player. Those answers will tell us far more about the state of professional golf in 2026 than any single round ever could.