Wide Open Fields and Second Acts: What the 2026 Cognizant Classic Tells Us About Golf’s New Reality

After 35 years covering this tour, I’ve learned that sometimes what doesn’t happen tells you more than what does. This week at the Cognizant Classic, we’re looking at a field notably absent of the game’s marquee names—no top-25 ranked golfers in the world competing—and that absence speaks volumes about where professional golf stands in 2026.

Brooks Koepka’s return from LIV Golf should theoretically be the story here. The man won four major championships. He’s still got the name, the pedigree, the swagger. Yet after finishing outside the top 55 in his first two PGA Tour events back, even the computer models aren’t confident in him this week. I think that tells us something we’ve been slow to acknowledge: the transition from LIV back to the traditional tour grind is tougher than any of us anticipated, even for the elite.

"Koepka is the biggest name in the Cognizant Classic field, but after finishing outside the top 55 in his first two PGA Tour events back, the SportsLine model isn’t putting much faith in him for 2026 Cognizant Classic bets."

In my three decades around this game, I’ve seen comebacks and reinventions. I caddied for Tom Lehman through his best years, watched Phil navigate every obstacle imaginable, covered Tiger’s returns. But there’s something different about the LIV transition. These aren’t guys rusty from injury—they’re players whose rhythm, their competitive calendar, their entire ecosystem has fundamentally changed. That takes longer to recalibrate than anyone expected.

The Beauty of an Open Field

Here’s what I actually find encouraging though: when the elite don’t show up, it creates something the modern tour desperately needs—genuine unpredictability. This is a wide-open field, and that’s not a bug, it’s a feature.

Look at the model’s picks. Nicolai Hojgaard, the 24-year-old Dane who nearly made the Phoenix Open playoff just last week, is getting serious consideration for top-five honors at +500. The kid has two top-five finishes in 17 events last year, yet he closed strong with three top-15 finishes over his final five tournaments. That’s exactly the kind of trajectory we should be excited about—a young player still figuring it out, but trending upward.

"None of the top-25 ranked golfers in the world are playing in this tournament, so it’s a wide-open field, and the model gives Hojgaard as good a chance of any to win the whole thing."

The mid-tier veteran story is just as interesting. Daniel Berger, who missed the cut at last weekend’s Genesis Invitational, suddenly becomes relevant again in a different context. He’s a four-time PGA Tour winner with three top-five finishes at this very event. That’s not statistical noise—that’s a player who knows how to win here. The model projects him for a top-five result, though the value play sits at +360 odds to finish in the top 10. After 10 appearances at this tournament, Berger’s experience in this specific ecosystem matters more than his recent Genesis struggles.

The Forgotten Player Making Noise

Then there’s Thorbjorn Olesen, and this is where I think the models are getting at something important. The 36-year-old Dane has been utterly brutal at this event—three missed cuts in three Cognizant Classics. He’s also missed his first two events this season. By any rational measure, he’s got no business being recommended for anything.

Yet he’s coming off a solid fall with three top-five finishes in six PGA events, and in the specific Group C matchup at DraftKings—facing Davis Thompson, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Aaron Rai, and Will Zalatoris—Olesen actually boasts three top-10 finishes from last year. That’s more than anyone else in that group.

"Of the five, Olesen has the longest odds, yet the model projects him as the top finisher of the group… Especially given his comparative odds, the model projects value in taking him to top this group."

This is golf’s dirty secret that we don’t talk about enough: trajectory and matchup context matter more than raw recent results. A player trending upward who had his worst tournaments behind him? That’s not a liability, that’s a setup for a breakthrough.

What This Means for the Tour

Having spent over a decade covering these events intensely, I can tell you that weeks like this—when the biggest names sit out and the field opens up—are actually when the PGA Tour’s depth shines brightest. This isn’t a second-tier event populated by second-tier players. It’s an opportunity for legitimate mid-tier talent to compete at the highest level without facing Rory and Collin and Scottie in a murderers’ row.

The computer models backing Hojgaard’s top-five at +500, Berger’s top-10 at +360, and Olesen in a group matchup all share a common thread: they’re finding value in players who fit the specific context of this week, not just general tour rankings.

That’s the kind of smart, contextual analysis that separates casual observation from real golf handicapping. And it’s why weeks without the elite names can be more interesting than we initially assume.