Pebble Beach’s Perfect Storm: How Sunday’s Weather Could Crown an Unlikely Champion

After 35 years covering professional golf, I’ve learned that the most interesting tournaments aren’t always won by the best players—they’re won by the ones who handle chaos the best. That’s precisely what we’re facing Sunday at Pebble Beach, and frankly, it’s exactly what this event needed.

Akshay Bhatia sits atop the leaderboard heading into the final round of the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, nursing a two-shot lead over Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, and Jake Knapp. On paper, it looks like a conventional setup for a coronation. But that’s before you factor in the forecast—and when I caddied for Tom Lehman back in the day, I learned that weather at Pebble Beach doesn’t just affect scoring; it fundamentally changes who’s capable of winning.

When the Elements Become the Opponent

According to weather reports heading into Sunday, the Monterey Peninsula is bracing for rain and steady 20 mph winds. That’s not just “breezy conditions”—that’s tournament-altering weather. And here’s what strikes me most: the leaderboard is tight enough that whoever maintains the best mental approach to these elements could easily jump five spots.

Tommy Fleetwood, who sits firmly in contention, articulated this beautifully when discussing the incoming conditions:

“I’m not saying it’s enjoyable, but you have to accept the conditions for what they are and you have to look forward to playing in it and make the most of it really. It’s just the mindset that you’re going to have.”

That’s tour wisdom right there. Fleetwood gets it—and frankly, so do most of the top tier players in this field. But accepting conditions and executing in them are two entirely different animals. I’ve seen plenty of players talk a great game about wind and rain only to fall apart when their ball is dancing in a 20 mph gust.

The Bhatia Question: Can Youth Weather the Storm?

Here’s what concerns me about Bhatia’s position: he’s the kind of explosive, aggressive player who thrives when he can trust his swing. Weather that demands restraint, precision, and patience can be problematic for players whose natural instinct is to attack. Two shots is a legitimate cushion, but it’s hardly bulletproof in these conditions.

Conversely, I like what I’m seeing from Morikawa, who sits just two back. He’s got that methodical approach—the kind of player who actually plays better when the weather gets nasty. Same goes for Straka, who’s proven over multiple tours that he can navigate difficult conditions. And Knapp? At two shots back, he’s got every reason to be aggressive, which paradoxically might be exactly what he needs in rough weather.

Watch Fleetwood Closely

I’ll tell you who I’m keeping a close eye on: Tommy Fleetwood himself. He sits further back in the pack than the leaders, but his comments about mindset suggest he’s thinking clearly about what Sunday demands. I’ve covered enough tournaments to know that players who verbalize their mental approach beforehand often execute it better under pressure. Fleetwood’s demonstrated that ability time and again on the European Tour and in major championships.

The Logistics: How to Follow the Action

For those planning to watch, here’s what you need to know:

Television Coverage: Golf Channel opens things up from 1-3 p.m. ET, with CBS taking over from 3-6:30 p.m. ET.

Streaming Options: PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ will provide the most comprehensive coverage starting at 10:45 a.m. ET, including featured group and featured hole coverage. You can also stream the CBS broadcast via Paramount+.

Featured Groups to Watch: The final pairing sends Akshay Bhatia, Collin Morikawa, and Sepp Straka out at 12:45 p.m. from Tee No. 1. For Fleetwood’s group, he’ll be playing with Sam Burns and Maverick McNealy at 12:23 p.m., also from Tee No. 1.

What Really Matters Sunday

Here’s what I think gets lost in tournament coverage: Pebble Beach isn’t just a beautiful golf course, it’s a course that demands respect for its conditions. The weather forecast isn’t a curveball—it’s a reminder of what this place is fundamentally about. The pros who understand that Pebble Beach is as much about managing the environment as managing your scorecard are the ones who’ll have a chance Sunday.

Fleetwood summed it up perfectly when he said:

“We’ll see what the conditions bring. It sounds like it’s going to be rough, but who knows — the weather’s been wrong plenty of times.”

That’s both humble and realistic. Weather forecasts miss. Wind shifts. Rain can stop. But the player who shows up Sunday prepared to embrace whatever comes—rather than fight it—will have a significant advantage.

I’ve covered 15 Masters, dozens of Open Championships in brutal conditions, and more Pebble Beach Pro-Ams than I can count. The winners aren’t always the ones with the biggest lead. They’re the ones with the strongest minds when things get uncomfortable.

Sunday should tell us everything we need to know about this field heading into February.